Early buying should fade and bring LOWER levels on Thursday.
We have RE-ISSUED ONE NEW OPTIONS TRADE for TOMORROW’S market: Underlying Security: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Option Contract: SPY JUN 21 2024 440.000 PUT
Trade Action: BUY to OPEN
CBOE Symbol: SPY240621P00440000
Latest Close:$1.21
BEST Price: $1.00
MAX Price: $1.15
Target EXIT: $1.65
Initial STOP: $0.75
**Opening Trades are to be entered as DAY ORDERS ONLY
**Target
EXIT
and
STOP
orders
are to be entered as
GTC
Reasons for our overall NEGATIVE leanings:
Last night, 12 Hours before the ‘big reveal’, we stated, “Recent prognostications regarding CPI/PCE among other reports have all turned out to be either ‘nothing burgers’ or something highly unwelcome. Our indicative ‘divining rods’ are pointing toward a high probability for unsettling data rather than ‘all’s good in the hood” and our ‘divining rods’ were humming like tuning forks as CPI data scuttled high hopes for foreseeable rate cuts by the Fed and the markets reacted accordingly.
Spooked optimists sprinted to the exits on the ‘unsettling’ news and share prices fell like Spring season pollen. The NASDAQ was able to hold its losses to a ‘mere’ 0.84% decline as the S&P 500 plopped down 0.95% and the DJIA jiggled 1.09% lower while the Russell 2000 imploded by 2.52% as buyers bolted from the action. 10-year Treasury bonds muscled up 19bp to 4.56% its highest close since mid-November. Today also marked the largest one-day bump in yield offerings since September 2022. West Texas Intermediate CRUDE OIL spot prices ‘inflated’ by 1.15% and closed at $86.21 per barrel. Fed minutes had ‘zero’ impact on today’s market extravaganza as policymakers professed a desire to see more progress on inflation before even ‘considering’ rate cuts this year. Labor Department will release Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE] data for March at 8:30AM ET tomorrow and the ‘experts’ predict, similarly to their recent CPI prediction failure, that March PCE will bubble up 0.3% following February's 0.6% jump. Let’s see if they can pull their collective fat out of the fire with tomorrow’s guess. Initial jobless claims are also scheduled for release tomorrow morning and the ‘experts’ also predict a decline of 6,000 filings to a weekly total of 215,000 folks. We are ‘reissuing’ last night’s trade selection for tomorrow’s session. We rarely re-up a trade but our pricing was a bit too protective to initiate today while our projected profit opportunity short-term remains viable. To echo last night’s mantra, “Tiptoe into the trade, trim your exposure, set your Target Exit and Protective Stop and run, don’t walk, to the nearest exit if either ‘target’ is hit.” - RT
Trade Risk: Warnings are ignored
Probability for Profit: 60%
River Oaks Capital Corporation, Serene Hills @ Lake Travis Lakeway, Texas 78738
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